In the ongoing competition between China and the United States, climate change is an underappreciated yet critical factor that could determine the outcome. As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events will intensify, posing significant risks to both countries' economic and technological power. This article explores how China and the United States are preparing for these challenges, highlighting the stark differences in their approaches and the potential consequences for their economic competitiveness. While China has been actively integrating climate adaptation into its policy planning for over a decade, the U.S. has no consistent national strategy. China's efforts include ambitious engineering projects, early warning systems, and financial tools to manage climate risk. In contrast, the U.S. has made only slight progress in reducing the risk of future damage and is not making the type of sustained investments in large-scale projects that could better protect its economy and people from climate-driven harm. The reliability of electric grids is not the only climate-related factor that will affect the AI race. Data centers themselves are also exposed to coastal inundation, flooding, tropical cyclone winds, and wildfires. XDI found that more than 200 of the 3,382 U.S. data centers it analyzed—particularly those in Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon—could face significant risk of damage from climate change–related hazards by midcentury. Climate adaptation presents an economic opportunity, and China is better positioned to take advantage of it. The country that can produce adaptation technologies at scale stands to gain not only new manufacturing and job opportunities but also trade advantages as the rest of the world seeks out climate-resilient infrastructure. As climate change becomes more disruptive, a United States that cannot protect its infrastructure and other economic assets will suffer immensely. It will face skyrocketing disaster response bills, become less attractive to investors, fall behind in emerging industries, and ultimately become less competitive.
